NEW OHIO POLLING TILTS TO KERRY: Three of the five statewide polls of Ohio likely voters published in the last two days (October 17 and 18) show a narrow lead for Kerry, and a fourth shows a tie at 47% each. In all five cases, the gaps between the two candidates are less than the polls' margins of error. In other words, it's still a dead heat but there's a slight tilt in the Democratic direction.

FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics, completed yesterday, shows Bush 47%, Kerry 45%, 3% Nader. (Nader is not on the ballot.)

Survey USA, completed yesterday, shows Bush 47%, Kerry 49%.

ABC News, completed Monday, shows Bush 47%, Kerry 50%.

Rasmussen Reports, completed yesterday, shows a tie at 47%.

The University of Cincinnati's "Ohio Poll", completed Monday, shows Bush 46%, Kerry 48%.

Generally, incumbents need a 3-4% polling advantage going into Election Day to win. Also these are "likely voter" polls, which probably undercount the coming turnout of "unlikely" Democratic voters. So these results are good news for Kerry.

Now you know why Arnold Schwarzenegger is coming for a visit.

(Poll results are from 2.004k.com.)